The German government intends to follow the example of China? German Economy Minister Arjun Meyer last week “National Industrial Strategy 2030” report in Berlin , the power of state intervention, conducted a public advocacy, including encouraging enterprises to create a German national . The report caused an uproar, even if not quite there in Germany. While for Chinese people, this report should be regarded as a half-hi half worry. Or the good news is, Trump hate rhetoric, the strong rise in Germany; and would definitely be worry that European mergers and acquisitions and the competitive environment will continue to deteriorate.
Figure 1 German industrial strategy for 2030
in the introduction to this report, presents a common theme: In the industry globalization, the acceleration of innovation, as well as other national industrial policy and protectionist expansion of these four conditions Germany (and Europe) can continue to maintain and develop the already highly prosperous private and public economy? State intervention is the main theme of this problem naturally is not difficult to answer. German in the report, followed by question and answer directly to give the answer, “Germany has been established as the highly prosperous thanks to the world’s most successful economic model: social market economy.” The German is the initiator of this report, the German Minister of Economy and Energy Art Meyer. Declaration
Figure 2 German Minister
The report made no secret of mixing the advantages of industrial policy interventions and market economy combined, which referred to a number of companies and industries: from early 1969, Airbus establishment, later on individual companies such as Germany’s second-largest steel company Salzgitter, Opel Opel, construction company Holzmann’s “rescue attempt”, to the liquidation or the production of semiconductors and microchips PV companies. The report acknowledges that some interventions have failed. Because the government has not done enough good, but not better entrepreneurs on the national principle. Although the report also defines the conditions of a national shot, but it is the emphasis on the “state action, as a special case is entirely justified, but also absolutely necessary.” State intervention, as a necessary means to distinguish it from a separate consideration of the interests of the company. With this head start Overture Control Engineering Copyright , then to figure out what the “German Industrial Strategy 2030” melody, it should be noDifficult. Yes, the state forces for intervention in industry, will become a heavy weapon, is again brings up. Germany’s frustrating innovation? The strategy will iron and steel copper and aluminum, chemicals, machinery, automotive, optical, medical equipment, green technology, defense, aerospace and additive manufacturing in ten industries listed as “key industrial sectors.” This is the core of Germany. However, the report in the “challenge” of the chapter , like a melancholy director, with a set of flash shots, reproducing unpleasant German industrial side. As early as the 1970s, Germany has lost its leading position wound up in the consumer electronics industry, we will lead the ceding of Japan and South Korea. Since then, this loss is no longer the road back. It then caused a chain reaction, so that Europe can not be in the telecommunications and computer technology, consumer electronics (including smart phones, tablets, etc.) and other emerging areas of a firm foothold. Production of new carbon fibrous material mainly outside of Germany. (I guess this is mentioned in the report, because Airbus is proud of the EU, however composite Airbus is a large number from Japan and the United States). The success of the German automotive industry has a future as an industrial base is important, but at the same time, the German automotive industry had gone into worries about the future, these have not been successfully overcome significant challenges from: increasingly demanding emissions subversive mode of operation level, electric vehicles, autonomous driving, as well as the concept of a new mobile travel that might be caused. Those who represent the economic platform of Internet companies, almost entirely in the United States and China’s development, rather than in Germany and the European Union. This situation, almost no signs of change. In artificial intelligence (AI) field, although basic research in Germany is still strong, but commercial is completely not kept pace. The gap between Germany and the leading Internet companies currently seems to expand, not shrink: no one German companies to invest in this area, can match any of a large US investment platform-oriented enterprises. Germany must concentrate its entrepreneurs, scientific and political forces in the field of artificial intelligence, reduce the backward situation. In the development of new biotechnologies, EU companies do not seem to get tickets. With these depressing fact, the report concluded that heavy, Germany seems to be a direct “short circuit” the. Global variety of new, large companies appear in almost all areas of innovation, especially in digital and artificial intelligence collararea. These areas have been a huge boost capital and market forces, far more than any company in the German DAX index. German and European success of start-ups, are increasingly funded by US venture capital funds, gradually became US companies. Of course, this is only one side of the coin. Germans still believe that, by tradition strong growth of the industry, to make up for the loss of these areas. For example, in recent decades, the German automobile industry significantly expanded its dominance. In the high-end market, the world’s cars sold, about 80 percent are manufactured by the German company. This process means that at least the German industrial employment can be maintained at a high level. Overall, the German current jobs are more than any time in history. However, changes subversive, always present. If Germany and Europe can not be successfully achieved leadership in disruptive technology, it is possible to quickly lose a huge value-added space. The report mentions a lingering fear, then Sony has just celebrated its pocket player “Walkman” reached its peak position, he was hit in 2001, Apple introduced the iPod to pieces, suffered a crushing defeat. Germans are most afraid of this. For innovative technology, the report mentions the development of platform-based Internet company, artificial intelligence, nanotechnology and biotechnology, new materials, lightweight construction techniques and quantum computing. For AI, the report seems overly strengthened its meaning, not hesitate to send suspicious of praise. Reported that “the application of artificial intelligence, probably represents the greatest invention since the steam engine breakthrough innovation because they extend equally to all economic, industrial and services, logistics and transport, work, personal and social life. Variety of applications, We are constantly optimized. ” On autopilot, the autopilot if the artificial intelligence digital platforms from the United States, the future of automotive batteries from Asia, then Germany and Europe losses in this area will reach more than 50%. And these effects go far beyond the automotive industry itself. Of course, you can not miss “Industry 4.0.” Machine “real” world and the Internet “virtual” world of difference between being increasingly disappearing. Internet is given a new dimension; from the economic point of view, do not use the Internet in industrial production is no longer conceivable. In this fusion machines and networks, the question of which party will play a leading role is also not clear; this change has only just begun. It may be noted here, thisReport discussion of disruptive technologies, showing a surprisingly jerky. Too frivolous or excessive praise for the AI, or too arbitrary judgment about the future control of the car, it is either too conservative discourse industrial 4,0, basically exactly the same as “Internet industry” people understand, it uses ” machines and Internet interconnection (industry 4.0) “this kind of language; on the other hand, its” integration into the industry “and” Internet “, who will occupy the top, did not make a clear answer: it’s hard to imagine this kind of discussion is out of German hands. There is only one reasonable explanation that the German minister, adopted a mood of exaggerated resort to agitation to seek attention to seasoned politicians. Industrial countries are in the running report that Germany’s main national competitors, action has been made, and are repositioned. In the US, the main driving technological development by Apple, Amazon, Google, Microsoft and General Electric and other large technology group. They research and development in artificial intelligence, digital, autonomous driving and biotechnology total invested hundreds of billions of dollars. The Obama administration provides extensive support for this development. The government is trying to Trump by “America first” policy to revitalize and protect traditional industrial sectors as steel, aluminum, automotive industry and agriculture, had tried to lose share back to the US. Japan’s economic advantage, inter alia, artificial intelligence, networking and robotics machinery and automotive industries. Softbank Group is a network technology (artificial intelligence, networking machines and robots) investment fund set up vision (Vision Fund), the fund will grow to $ 100 billion within a decade. Report does not accidentally continue to be made in China, for example. It is believed that a particularly successful industrial policy of the country is China, in 2015, launched the initiative “Made in China 2025” by active industrial policy CONTROL ENGINEERING China Copyright , in order to strengthen the Ten Key field. 2017, China announced in 2030 seeking to become the world leader in the field of artificial intelligence. In July 2018, and other state-owned China Merchants Group decided to set up 100 billion yuan of the “new era of China Technology Fund” to invest in China and around the world technology companies. Softbank’s “Vision Fund” (Vision Fund) echoes. And by “areaAll the way, “China is trying to ensure the safety and logistics of the sales market. This strategy will combine the principles of market economy and proactive national policy so far has proven to be the most successful. It is clear that Meyer believes the Minister of Art, EU politics, in a very long time, ignored these developments strengthen the national industrial base, not only in the national interest, but also has a priority of national importance. To this end, the government needs the appropriate means and means. reference point of the national industrial policy report , succinctly outlined the main points of a national industrial policy of the German economy, the ability to lead depends industrial technology, is to maintain the viability of the future the defining challenge of the German economy must be able to withstand global competition in all key areas. proportion of secondary industry, no matter how many flaws, is still an important goal worthy of respect, especially in key technologies and breakthrough innovation. Germany We need to increase that share to 25% (currently 23%), while Europe Need to improve in 2030 to 20 percent in local, keeping a closed loop industrial value-added chain, is very important. If all parts of the value chain, from the production of basic materials, to processing and processing, to distribution, service, and research development, exist in a regional economy, it will be more competitive in all aspects. at present the value chain must be missing a lot of outsourcing appears, be vigilant and repair. mentioned in the report to maintain a comprehensive view of all industries. “to fight for every a job for all “, also sounds Trump style: desperate, even if the mining industry including this dusty work should go back to the United States importantly, the industry divided.” dirty old “and” clean new forces “distinction, is the wrong approach. this argument, for the moment interested in converting the kinetic energy of old and new, to cut off the old practice of kinetic energy, is really a vivid and useful reminder. Nature needs industrial policy strengthen support for small and medium enterprises, Germany’s most distinctive is hidden champions group. report refers not without worries Germany unique hidden champions advantage of being worried digitized erosion. “Than ever, these hidden champions need to get personalized support.” If these allegations are nothing new to say. Then report then points to the full-text in a clear-cut point of view, that is: the urgent need for the leading German and Europeanenterprise. Art Meyer then minister defended this. On the one hand, for many years in Germany almost no new business of this size, Siemens, ThyssenKrupp, each car manufacturer or Deutsche Bank and other existing leader, and in some cases have existed for 100 years or more time, and it has become a mature global players. Airbus’s position in the aviation industry, has been unbreakable, but can even be traced back to its birth 50 years ago. On the other hand, brands like AEG or former world leaders such as Grundig, I do not know already disappeared. In the United States and China, many large, global market participants have full-fledged, especially in telecommunications technology, the Internet and digital technology fields. Therefore, the Minister of Art Fort called on EU competition law needs to be modified in order to promote EU companies can reasonably be “large.” The report also took pains to enumerate the $ 30 billion global rail market. Taking into account the time the report issued by the EU is to merge Siemens and Alstom locomotives, on the eve of the final vote, then the “leading enterprises” and the reference to “reform of competition law” is undoubtedly a very targeted. The report , Germany has too practical considerations.
Figure 3 locomotive global market distribution (Figure Source: Nikkei Chinese network)
wrote the report, worrying that the German almost no new large-scale enterprises CONTROL ENGINEERING China All Rights Reserved , on the contrary, the previous world-leading companies such as AEG, Grundig (Grundig) and other long lost its leading position. In the United States and China over the past 20 years there has been a lot actually the world’s leading new large enterprises, creating new value. German officials for what amounts to heart? The author of this sort to let troubled German German hi several companies. AEG built in 1883, in washing machines, kitchen appliances in the field is the world market leader. 100 years later filed for bankruptcy, and in 1996 AEG brand became a subsidiary of the Swedish Electrolux (Elektrolux) Group. 1849 founded the construction company Philipp Holzmann peak in 1994, reaching 13.1 billion marks, is Germany’s largest construction company, and then declared bankruptcy in 1999, and 2002 years was liquidated. Germany’s second largest steelmaker Salzgitter Group is a proud example of the German government. In the 1960s decade, Salzgitter AG was once the world’s largest state-owned enterprises, and public listing in 1998. In 2008, once into the most important German blue-chip DAX index of Top30. This is regarded as a good example of the German intervention. Here, and on to the present report is the most exciting part: countries need to sell, directly held shares in companies, which support the development of large enterprises. And behind this point of view, it is at the same time strengthen the determination of blocking foreign mergers and acquisitions. In other words, rather than let other countries to mergers and acquisitions, it is better to let the German government funded a stake. Although the report added many restrictive attributive, but this view is tantamount to a haystack we are looking for lilies. From this point of view, state intervention can do many things. Such as a battery, the State may set up a consortium to provide assistance, and in the extremely important issue of economic platform, such as artificial intelligence and automatic driving, the state simply directly involved – such as the establishment of the year Airbus. This is a big scale. No wonder Art Meyer’s remarks, in Europe caused a huge backlash. Head of German Automobile Manufacturers Association immediately react to represent the German automotive industry, does not require such participation. “Stuttgarter Zeitung” that the Art Maier hopes to provide special protection for “national champions” and Siemens, ThyssenKrupp such a global industrial giant, this departure from the strategy he called “social market economy” principle. As if to slow down the widespread concerns about the European industry, the report also gives the principles of government regulation. And timing of intervention where government forces, a detailed description. The EU believes Germany do? Weapon further report back to the EU that the EU needs an industrial strategy to strengthen industrial competitiveness throughout Europe. The process of de-industrialization in many EU countries must be phased out and reversed. EU to dwell on fiscal issues, less about fundamental questions of economic policy. Several different forms of existing Council (Competitiveness Council, the Business Council, the Telecommunications Council, the Energy Council) are too scattered, not a focus of the Council, will bring together all the different aspects, discussions and make a decision. Report finds that the EU needs a “Industrial Council of Ministers”, thereby reducing the current Council is a single individual matters. Final reportExpectations through legislation, to further consolidate the national industrial strategy. Finally, “I suggest 2021 as a start point in time such” Art Meyer in a very personal style, like the end of the letter, ending the “National Industrial Strategy 2030” report. However, such a report , to convince the German industry has a difficult, not to mention the European Union. He said the new goal is 2030, so that industry accounted for 25 per cent of total value added in the German economy, the EU accounted for 20 per cent of total value added in the economy. Germany insisted proportion of GDP and industrial targets, have a solid foundation. German industry is highly competitive and innovative capacity. By 2015, industrial investment in research and development of approximately 53 billion euros, equivalent to 85% of the total expenditure of all the internal private sector, almost four times the proportion of the industry in the entire GDP. German industry is currently accounting for 23%. Stabilize this goal should still promising. However, Germany is the locomotive of the European Union, is not the only spokesman for the EU. I do not know Art Maier is forgetful, or deliberately ignore the facts. EU Economic Commission as early as in 2012, we hope to GDP ratio of EU industry, increased from 16% to 20% in 2020. In the past six years, almost no improvement. 20% of the objectives have been impossible to complete in 2020. And the brave Mr. Minister, the European Union had simply set a timetable, once again postpone the decade to 2030. Most dramatically, the very next day the report was released, which is February 6, EU’s executive arm the European Commission rejected the merger of Germany’s Siemens and France’s Alstom railway vehicle business. Siemens and Alstom marriage, once again completely back to play. The EU’s concern is that, because of the process of globalization and promote the merger will lead to market monopoly. This was exactly what Meyer Art “National Industrial Strategy 2030” report, the emphasis of thing. EU vote with a simple gesture, declaring the failure of the German government lobbying, which is where most fail in this report. Notes on “National Industrial Strategy 2030” the most impressive is that the German government needs “national champions”, but also shares in companies of strategic importance in case these companies were acquired by foreign investors, for which the German government We will consider the establishment of a fund. Very significantHowever, in 2016 the German robot manufacturer KUKA is the United States of Chinese acquisition of an event, resulting in a cliff of influence. It angered politicians and public opinion, interfere with the judgment of entrepreneurs, this event continue to simmer, leading to subsequent revision of European mergers and acquisitions law. The report , can still be seen when the continuation of catharsis. “National Industrial Strategy 2030” report , is not so much about the future of a strategic initiative to German industry, as it is a statement about the relationship between “national and industry”. It seems that in a series of statements of principle, so Publicizing the concept, and unusual literacy. It’s more like looking for a moral and assistance on public opinion. From this point of view, it is a personal statement of Minister of Germany. Perhaps this will be the beginning of a new rise of the power of state intervention.